Bait Spotlight #6 - The Road

The Road

Directed by John Hillcoat
Screenplay by John Penhall
Starring: Viggo Mortensen, Charlize Theron, Robert Duvall and Kodi Smit-McPhee

Why It Will Win: It's a gripping story based off one of the most influential books of the decade. Now, on the big screen it's going to be hard for it to be a film that isn't interesting and enthralling. Unless of course, it's just not a good film. Also, the Academy digs Cormac McCarthy books, if you still remember a little film called No Country for Old Men which took home the grand prize last year. Also, the cast is well assembled, with Viggo and Charlize, as well as Kodi Smit-McPhee and Robert Duvall. Viggo is definitely a contender for Best Actor honors.

Why It Will Not Win: It may be too artsy-fartsy, weird or something that will draw the Academy away and gravitate towards more "accessible films". For example, none of the characters have names. It's "The Wife" or "The Boy", titles like that. Now, I'm not saying that because Viggo's character's name isn't Tony, this film will not be successful. No. But it may be a bit too deep and allegoric. Maybe too dark and depressing. Though, NCFOM and There Will Be Blood weren't comfortable sittings either. Also, it's not the best director in terms of Academy attention. His last film, The Proposition, was no Oscar darling. Yet Hillcoat is a very capable director and that was his feature-film debut. Screenwriter Joe Penhall is untested as a screenwriter, also.

Nominations:

Sorry, but it's a goose egg. This will fly under the radar.

Bottom Line: It will have it's fans, yet not among the Academy.

Little Miss Sunshine

***1/2

I dream of writing a screenplay that good.

Bait Spotlight #5 - Revolutionary Road

Revolutionary Road
Directed by Sam Mendes
Screenplay by Justin Haythe
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Kate Winslet and Kathy Bates

A young couple living in a Connecticut suburb during the mid-1950s struggle to come to terms with their personal problems while trying to raise their two children. Based on a novel by Richard Yates.



Why It Will Win: Sam Mendes, is a past winner of Best Director and inevitably had a film that won Best Picture (American Beauty). This latest film by him looks to be similar, a family drama, yet in a 50s landscape. You have to love the cast as well. You have Mendes's wife, Winslet, along with JACK! It's like Titanic all over again (hopefully not..). Then Kathy Bates, one of my favorites. Also an Oscar winner. Also, the simple family drama seems lately to be discluded from the Best Picture lineups. Not since In The Bedroom, has there been a dramatic, hard-hitting portrait of a family that has garnered a Best Picture nod. Does that work against it? Probably not. The Academy may want to diversify. Plus, you got Scott Rudin, reigning champ.

Why It Will Not Win: The old early front-runner curse. I don't see any logic to this theory, but...I don't know. Uh. There's the screenplay. Justin Haythe's only feature film screenplay is The Clearing with Robert Redford and Helen Mirren. Not a great film, but not a bad one either. Yet I'm not losing sleep over this dimension because he's getting a good story based off Richard Yates novel and great actors, a great director, and overall great people that will make his script look hella' good. Other than those blemishes, a curse and a questionable screenplay that will probably get an Oscar nod, things are looking pretty damn good for RR.

Nominations:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Lead Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio; the first of his two noms?)
Best Lead Actress (Kate Winslet; this might be her year..)
Best Supporting Actress (Kathy Bates)
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score

Bottom Line: Don't doubt Revolutionary Road. It'll rake in 10 nominations.

Bait Spotlight #4 - The Soloist

The Soloist
Directed by Joe Wright
Screenplay by Susannah Grant
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Robert Downey Jr. and Catherine Keener

A schizophrenic, homeless musician from Skid Row, Los Angeles dreams of playing at Walt Disney Concert Hall.



Why It Will Win: Joe Wright is pretty hot right now, off the heels of two very good films. He's capable of directing a great period piece, but will he be in his element with this film? Also you have five nominations and a win, combined, between the three stars of this film. You have a past-nominee is Susannah Grant who hit it big with her Erin Brockovich screenplay. Plus, the Academy always likes giving a golden ticket to a good 'ol biopic. This biopic features a very interesting central character. You gotta' love RDJ.

Why It Will Not Win: For some reason I have some doubts about Jamie Foxx. Yes, he has won an Oscar (coincidentally for playing another disabled musician), but can he do it again? Probably, yet I'm still kind of "iffy". Also, can Joe Wright handle this? He's made two great period pieces, but now it's on to another genre. Again, he's a very good director, but is he versatile enough? The last biopic to win Best Picture (A Beautiful Mind) also featured a main character who was schizophrenic. The Academy thinks of that kind of thing...

Nominations:
Best Supporting Actress (Catherine Keener)
Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.; is going to have a great body of work this year)

The Bottom Line: It's a film that could potentially be great, but I'm still not quite convinced it will rake in the nominations. 2 nominations

Bait Spotlight #3 - Defiance

Defiance
Directed by Edward Zwick
Screenplay by Clayton Frohman and Zwick
Starring: Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell

Three Jewish brothers (Craig, Schreiber and Bell) escape from Nazi-occupied Poland into the Belarussian forest, where they join Russian resistance fighters and endeavor to build a village in order to protect themselves and others in danger.



Why It Will Win: It's that historical drama that the Academy just needs. The film, coming from Edward Zwick (Glory, Blood Diamond) will be very dramatic, possibly tear-jerking and it has a wartime background. It also is in the hands of three fine actors: Craig, Bell (Billy Elliot!), and Schreiber. Zwick has directed Denzel, Leo, Djimon Hounsou, and Ken Watanabe all to nominations and even a win for Denzel. One of the three Defiance stars will inevitably get a nod.

Why It Will Not Win: It has to avoid being too..overly dramatic. Be emotional, be harrowing, but don't push it. Also, who's Clayton Frohman? This screenplay may be questionable. Yet, it is co-written by Zwick, so that shouldn't be a huge problem.

Nominations:
Best Lead Actor (Daniel Craig; Bond will get his first nom.)
Best Supporting Actor (Liev Schreiber)
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Music (Original Score)

Bottom Line: It's definately going to be a big player in this year's Oscars. Zwick will continue to get his actors nominations and the film will also pick up a few techs on the way to 6 nominations.

Baity Spotlight #2 - Doubt

Doubt
Written and Directed by John Patrick Shanley (based off his play)
Starring: Meryl Streep, Viola Davis, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams

Set in 1964, Doubt centers on a nun who confronts a priest after suspecting him abusing a black student. He denies the charges, and much of the play's quick-fire dialogue tackles themes of religion, morality and authority.



Why It Will Win: Subject matter, subject matter, subject matter. This is a plot that challenges race, religion, authority, and morals. That's big with the Academy. Also, the cast features two Oscar dominators; Meryl Streep and Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Also, the cast has one of the best younger actresses out there today, Amy Adams. As well, it has Viola Davis playing the mother of an abused child. That's a juicy role right there. Also, this has been a highly successful play. The plot is proven to work, the script is known to be good. Now can it transcend the big screen? This film has an A+ cast, A+ screenwriter, A+ cinematographer (Roger Deakins) and possibly very good direction. This film nearly has it all. On paper, it looks like the Best Picture. But in the past, a recipe for success, such as this one, has gone on to suck.

Why It Will Not Win: The main thing this film has to avoid is being too preachy. That could be it's death sentence. This is a film that wants to be hard-hitting and important. Last year, Lions for Lambs tried to be important, but ended up looking foolish and artificial. John Patrick Shanley's direction scares me as well. Let's go back in time and remember his last directorial feature...Joe Versus the Fricken' Volcano; a film I turned off in the middle. Ick.

Nominations:
Best Picture
Best Direction
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Lead Actress (Meryl Streep; Meryl Streep, 14 nominations)
Best Supporting Actress (Viola Davis)
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing

Bottom Line: This film will either be an Oscar darling or go down the tubes. I say Oscar darling, with 8 nominations.

Baity Spotlight #1 - The Curious Case of Benjamin

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Director: David Fincher
Screenplay by Eric Roth
Starring: Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton, Taraji P. Henson, Julia Ormand

Tells the story of Benjamin Button, a man who starts aging backwards with bizarre consequences.



Why It Will Win: Along with my obsessive anticipation for this film, the constant checking up on IMDb to find the smallest news, or the repetative scanning of the trailer, I also think this film has big chances come Oscar season.
Doubts about Fincher? Don't have any. The Academy is more akin to epic dramas, opposed to his more comfort-zone slice-and-dice thrillers. He'll be working with an Eric Roth (who I love)script, which in the past has won an Oscar. He's got a stacked cast at his disposal. Combined, you have 7 nods and 2 wins for those actors. Those numbers will soon alter.

Why It Will Not Win: It may be too epic clocking in, possibly at around 200 minutes, yet that doesn't really worry me too much. Also, Fincher. Yeah, I just said don't worry about him, but who the hell knows? Maybe the Academy will never love him. Maybe the film will be too "dark". Not all big problems, but you have to take everything into consideration.

Nominations:
Best Picture
Best Director (Fincher's talents won't go unnoticed)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Lead Actor (Brad Pitt; an epic performance, with aging and accents, etc. If Pitt pulls this off, a win is very possible.)
Best Supporting Actress (Cate Blanchett; another epic performance. It Blanchett. 'Nuff said.)
Best Supporting Actress (Taraji R. Henson; Good actress, good role.)
Best Cinematography
Best Make-up
Best Costume Design
Art Direction
Best Film Editing

This is one of those films that can dominate with the big awards because it's a quality film, as well as pick up a ton of techs. As a result: A shitload, 11 nominations.

The Great De-BAIT-ers

Starting..soon, I guess I'm going to talk about a certain 2008 release that is 'baity', or for those non-Oscar-obsessed, a film that looks like it could make an impact at the Oscars. I'll talk about the movie, the director, cast, etc. and then talk about the nominations I think it will garner. The films are...

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Defiance
The Soloist
Revolutionary Road
The Road (what's with all the roads..?)
Milk
Changeling
Happy-Go-Lucky
Burn After Reading
The Wackness
Frost/Nixon
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Australia
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
House of Lies
The Reader

And that's about it. If I can think of any more, I'll add them, but that seems like the bulk of films in serious contention. So each day (or so) for about the next 3 weeks, I"ll spotlight each film.

First Australia Review from 'Aintitcool'

Go here to see the review! The guy from Ain't It Cool goes to a test screening for Baz's new epic, Australia. I stubbornly remain opposed to the idea that this film will "show up" at Oscar time, but I'ts looking more and more baity. Still, I remain confident that the only epic nominated for Best Picture will be Benjamin Button.

In the review, he talks a lot about the plot. I must say, it sounds like Nicole Kidman's role is one that really will shout out Oscar, so maybe I'll add her to my charts. Things just got a whole lot more complicated...

Song of the Week

Vampire/Forest Fire - Arcade Fire (from their little-known, yet great, EP)

In Honor Of Wall-E...

My favorite films from the genius Pixar:

1. Finding Nemo
2. Toy Sotry
3. Monsters Inc.
4. Ratatouille
5. Toy Story 2
6. The Incredibles
7. Cars
8. Wall-E
9. A Bug's Life

All impressive films, yet Nemo and Toy Story are some of the greatest examples of cinematic storytelling.

Sunday Three-Peat - WALL-E, Untraceable, ESotSM

So over the past few days I have seen three films; two pretty good, one great. Let's start with the most recent...

WALL-E - The hype surrounding this film has been brimming with praise. Unfortunately, I'm not apart of the club that's deeming this film a masterpiece. By no means is it a bad film. It's beautifully crafted visually, it has an important message, and best of all, it features an unforgettable title character. The thing is, though, we never get too close to Wall-E because, as weird as it may sound, he isn't relatable. Other Pixar films feature characters, take Marlin of 'Nemo' for instance, that have feelings channeling our own (a worried parent, trying desperately to find his son). Wall-E, the little box of steel, is cute as hell, but not able to hold this film up. Overall, Wall-E tried a bit too hard and ended up making the storyline falter, making the overall entertainment value falter.

**1/2 (out of ****)

Untraceable - Untraceable is an average thriller that scores big points in the area of entertainment. It has an original story that captivates, yet predictability and minor, yet frequent, flaws hold the film back from being really good. Diane Lane stars, and she does a good job in being a heroic and admirable character that works as an FBI agent in some sort of computer unit. Yet, as stated I could predict, early on. certain major happenings in the film which is a case of unoriginal character development. Here and there, I found things that made me go 'huh?'. 'Would they really do that in real-life?'. Also, this film needed a big, smart ending to round out the film's plot and it didn't quite deliver. Hey, I was entertained and it was a good Saturday night flick with a few scares (the film is pretty graphic, I must say), but nothing brilliant.

**1/2

Speaking of brilliant...

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - A ridiculously good screenplay, deep characters that you love and a story we've never heard before makes Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind so original, great and maybe one of the best films I've ever seen. Whoa. Everywhere, performances, style, script,this film works. It's a curious plot, one you have to kind of step back and think over a moment, but it has no holes and it comes full circle perfectly. Charlie Kaufman is a damn genius (I should know that, shouldn't I?). Michel Gondry give this film it's infectious style with vivid and consistent colors and themes. A great, great film I couldn't stop thinking about. See it.

****