August Oscar Predictions

Here are the first nominations of Oscar season for me. Just the nominees for now, no winners. They're listed in no order...

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
Milk

It took me a while to finally come up with my fifth nominee. To me, Benjamin Button, Doubt and Milk are locks. That's just me. I think you need the biopic-with-stellar-acting (Milk), a-harrowing-story-that-brings-up-social-issues (Doubt) and then, just a film I think could be a classic someday (Benjamin Button). Then, as I looked at my acting nominations, Revolutionary Road was dominating, so that was in. Then the fifth one. It's The Dark Knight.

Look at it this way: if the Oscars were today, what would win Best Picture? I would think The Dark Knight (possibly Wall-E, but...). Now, then I figured, it looks to be a rather weak year for film. Maybe a couple of gems, but other than that, not much. So if it's a weak year and The Dark Knight can still stay as one of the best films of the year, then, I believe it's in. Doesn't the Academy want to have some balls? Let in the epic superhero blockbuster that also is a quality film with a sweet screenplay and some very good performances (HEATH). We'll have to see...



Best Director

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
John Hillcoat, The Road

I think John Patrick Shanley will end up getting left out, of the BP directors. The logical thought would be Nolan, but I actually have confidence in the Academy to see Nolan's directorial brilliance. I can only hope. I think if Shanley is left out, Hillcoat will come in. A very good director that will probably be in his comfort zone with The Road. He's capable of setting the right tone in a film and The Road is definitely a story that needs that. Fincher, Mendes and Van Sant all in as well.



Best Lead Actor

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sean Penn, Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Brad Pitt has the potential to create an unforgettable role as Benjamin Button, comparable to Tom Hanks's transformation in Forrest Gump. If Pitt has the chops for the role (which I believe he does), he becomes the front-runner. Really, though, look at this lineup. It's unbelievable. The lead in a Best Picture-nominated biopic almost always gets a nomination and even the win most of the time. That'd be Sean Penn.

You can't sleep on Frank Langella either, though. He won a Tony for playing Nixon on stage. I would be surprised if he's any less impressive adapting that role to the silver screen. Lock. Leonardo seems to be a logical pick, in an extremely baity role.

Then that fifth slot is tough. Viggo was the safe choice, in a way, and I think he needs to be nominated for Hillcoat to get a nomination. But maybe it could be Michael Sheen or Jamie Foxx. Eastwood in Gran Torino, anybody? The moral of this story? Lead actor is stacked this year.



Best Lead Actress

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Reviews from Cannes hail Jolie as Oscar-worthy and I believe it. She was "snubbed" last year, so she has a little one-up over other contenders. Meryl Streep is a lock if Doubt is good, and by my physic powers, it will be. Sally Hawkins is kind of the comedic relief sweetsy role in honor of Ellen Page. She has room to be funny, and should have a good Mike Leigh script to work with. Kate could win this category. Enough said. And then Anne Hathaway. Basically it's between her and Melissa Leo. I have a sad feeling though, come March, we'll have forgotten about Leo and Frozen River. Sorry, guys. Anne (based on the trailer..) has a juicy role, so I think she'll grab a nom.



Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Russell Crowe, Body of Lies
Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist
Liev Schreiber, Defiance

I think Ledger and Downey Jr. are locks. Ledger has a good chance to win this category, because, uh, he gave, like, the best performance ever. Downey Jr. is getting nominated basically for his body of work. The Academy with do eeny-meeny-miny-mo to see which of his three great roles he'll get nominated for (that was a joke..just clarifying..). Russell Crowe is Russell Crowe. His role looks pretty awesome (can he pull off the accent?).

I think Defiance will pine out an acting nomination, and through the grapevine, I've heard Liev is really good in it. Brolin is, sort of, another Body of Work Nomination. Milk needs another acting nomination to get a Best Picture nomination, and Brolin can certainly pull it off. He plays a major asshole in Milk, by the way.



Best Supporting Actress

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Queen Latifah, The Secret Life of Bees

Cruz, Bates and probably Henson are locks. Cruz is supposed to steal the show. I doubt Benjamin Button would only get one acting nomination, so Henson should be in (plus, she's a great actress). Viola Davis has a hell of a baity role, playing the mother of a raped child. I can see her have some scene-stealers.

Then it gets sticky. I had no clue who to put in as the fifth nominee. Latifah seems pretty logical. It's going to be a cheesy drama with a quality ensemble. I can see the Queen sneaking into the pool.



Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth)
Revolutionary Road (Justin Haythe)
Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)
Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
The Dark Knight (The Nolans)

Best Original Screenplay

Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
Vicky Christina Barcelona (Woody Allen)
The Visitor (Thomas McCarthy)
The Soloist (Susannah Grant)
Rachel Getting Married (Jenny Lumet)