September Oscar Predictions

At first, about a week ago, I thought I didn't have much to change on my predictions. But then I begin to second-guess myself and then The Reader comes into the picture and suddenly Australia looks like huge bait and Cate seems like a shoe-in for CCOBB and maybe Charlize Theron will get a lead nom and 'Paper Planes' by that Sri Lankan rapper is growing on me big-time and maybe Revolutionary Road will bomb and suddenly I feel like an idiot for sleeping on Kodi Smit-McPhee and Rosemary DeWitt is suddenly a prime candidate and hell, maybe Demme could get a director nom and maybe I'm thinking this out too much. Whew. Well there are some changes from the August chart to this one. I'm kind of winging it, improvising, if you will.

See my August Predictions here.

Best Picture

Suddenly, so many movies feel capable of getting into this category. What it comes down to, though, is this: what films are least likely to be like Reservation Road? AKA, which films won't bomb? Truly, and I've been saying this for months now, I don't think Milk can fail. Hold me to that. It has all the ingredients and currently it's the frontrunning nominee. No winners just yet. Doubt is riskier, because of it being a stage aadaptation and all that bullshit, but it remains in my line-up. I'm living a lie if I take Button out. Wouldn't I be a hypocrite? But suddenly, my stance on it being the one to beat has diminished. Some shakey reviews and press scare me. Keep Rev Road in there, Sam Mendes is directing it, after all. Then comes The Dark Knight argument. Let's admit it: TDK has lost some steam in the past two weeks. Maybe I'm coming to my senses. We all had it in our line-up during it's wave of fandom.

So it's out. It pains me, but I can't keep it in there. Should I put in Austalia? I don't know! It's biggest thing going against it is that two period epics in one Best Picture line-up sits very badly with me. W.? Whoa, shit. Bad boy, Mark! Never utter those words. Okay, I'm over it. (This is painful. I'm writing to myself.)For a second, I wanted to say Appaloosa. Why is that? Okay, so here it is:

Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Australia
Doubt



Best Director

So, since I'm bucking the whole Dark Knight idea, I guess I have to buck the Chris Nolan idea. Part of me still wants to include him, but I don't feel it anymore. Fincher, Van Sant and Mendes are definately in. I would be shocked if Baz missed out on another Director nom (he didn't get one for Moulin Rouge!). I think Shanley is on the outside looking in again.

So I have an interesting proclamation. Jonathan Demme. He'll get his actresses noms and the Academy loves him, as he already has an Oscar in the trophy case. There are a few other interesting thoughts bopping around for me. Darren Aronofsky is getting great press for The Wrestler, as is Mickey Rourke (read on). Last month, I also had John Hillcoat on the board for The Road. I have a new outlook for The Road, as you'll soon see.

Gus Van Sant, Milk
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
Baz Lurhmann, Australia



Best Lead Actor

I've said this before: Lead Actor is stacked. Pitt got good buzz from that goddamn Telluride "screening" (I think we'll be laughing about all the mixed press Button got from that screening, a year from now). He remains a lock, as does Leo, a very safe pick. Langella and Penn (Milk looks brilliant, right?) seem sure-things as well.
That final spot, though. I've had Viggo for The Road, firmly in that spot for awhile now, but a new name has come up. Mickey Rourke. The buzz for him and The Wrestler is crazy. Some are comparing him to the caliber Daniel Day-Lewis performed at for There Will Be Blood. That's amazing.

Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk



Best Lead Actress

Similar to Actor, Actress is also a very hot category, with a few performances looking like sure-bets. I think Hathaway has punched her ticket for a nomination (that doesn't make sense, but sounds cool). The rest is comprised of actresses that are among the top in their profession. But do the best always "win"? I mean, we have Streep. She's goddamn Meryl Streep, so I think she's in. I'm pushing the picture of her in Lions For Lambs out of my mind. Kate Winslet is going to do something this year, be it The Reader or Revolutionary Road, but I prefer the latter. Sally Hawkins remains buzzing, but I might take my foot off the gas on that nomination. Let's keep Jolie on the board, reluctantly. For some reason, Changeling just bored the hell out of me. I don't know why. So who is to take Hawkins's spot?

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Nicole Kidman, Australia

*22 nominations combined



Best Supporting Actor

From the trailer, Brolin looks great in Milk. If anything, he should nab a two-year Body of Work nomination for all the impressive performances he's given us, lately. Basically, the same goes for Robert Downey Jr., who'll be one of the few nominations The Soloist garners. Heath Ledger is 100% in, no doubts about it. I still have a hanging-by-a-thread hope for Russell Crowe in the wild card called Body of Lies. Is it Oscar bait? Is it just an action flick? Is it both? So the final spot. It always comes down to it. Previously, I had Liev Schreiber occupying that spot, but my Defiance confidence is waning. From a source, called Kristopher Tapley (just about the best source), who read the script, he said many scenes in The Road's script are chances for home runs by Kodi Smit-McPhee. So it looks like he has the material, but is he a good enough actor to pull it off?

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Russell Crowe, Body of Lies
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road



Best Supporting Actress

A new face has come to the surface in a category desperately needing one. Good old, Rosemary DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. The buzz has been stellar out of Venice. I think two others that are going to forces are Kathy Bates in Revolutionary Road and Penelope Cruz, who is universally loved in Vicky Christina Barcelona. But then it gets sticky with Queen Latifah giving us some honey in The Secret Life of Bees. The trailer looked sweet as honey (I need to stop), but Latifah is always reliable and very talented, so a nomination looks probable. I guess I'll go with Taraji P. Henson in Benjamin to round out the nominations, but not 100-percent-excitedly.

Queen Latifah, The Secret Life of Bees
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button



My mind moves with the wind, though. Everyday a new name comes up, a new name goes down. It's frustrating, but it is what it is. Whatever