The Gentlemen - Oscar Winner Predictions

Best Lead Actor

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Pro: Jenkins gave a subtle, lived-in performance, giving the audience a complex character for whom we rooted. Simply with the nomination, the Academy agreed with the masses: they loved Jenkins's performance.
Con: Jenkins is a guy whom we all feel we've seen before, yet we can't remember how. He's a newby to Oscar fame and the performance just isn't BIG enough for the win.

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Pro: It's a biopic performance, and a good one at that. The Academy respects this kind of performance, especially if Ron Howard is somehow attached. A Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind-type scenario.
Con: Would have given the Biopic Performance of the Year, hadn't Sean Penn hit a home run with his portrayal of Harvey Milk. Like his film, Langella's performance got lost in the shuffle of a great category.

Sean Penn, Milk
Pro: Penn brought a hero to screen perfectly in a Best Picture nominee and (serious?) contender. It's a performance in which we love the character, which is always a plus. And, again, it's a true man brought to screen.
Con: To think homophobia no longer lingers within the Academy's branches is just naive. The performance is gay, period. Wouldn't the Academy rather award (the more likeable?!) Richard Nixon or even a broken down wrestler?

Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Pro: Pitt's performance in the centerpiece of the 13-nominee juggernaut. He IS the famed Benjamin Button. Pitt, at least I thought, succeeded admirably in bringing a soon-to-be iconic role that wasn't really a piece of cake to the screen. Very solid.
Con: Most of it's bullshit. No, not really. But the performance isn't what you'd call organic acting. CGI, makeup and robots (no, I made that up...) brought this performance to the screen. The performance may not come across authentic.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Pro: It's the comeback story of the year, no question. Not just in movies. The Academy should expect a moving, funny speech if they're to award him. And the performance is stunning, so why the hell not?
Con: First off, there's a reason this is all a comeback. Rourke will be the first on to tell you that he pissed off many people when he threw his career down the shitter. Will voters really admire someone who screwed up so badly? Also, Sean Penn. No more words needed.

Winner: Rourke

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Pro: Basically, everyone thinks this is really good acting, and Brolin is lately, just the man. (He might have deserved a nomination over Pitt for W.) He may be riding the most successful recent body of work in Hollywood.
Con: Heathcliff Ledger.

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Pro: A rather brave performance that was executed well in one of the best comedies of the year. Pretty much the best comedic performance of 2008. And RDJ has just had a hell of a year, on top of that.
Con: Well, it is a comedic performance, which automatically makes things harder.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Pro: It was a very in-your-face, complicated portrayal that had you constantly engaged. PSH is a respected and talented actor that the Academy wouldn't mind awarding.
Con: Hoffman has been totally igonred due to the fact that his whole, fellow cast is actually competitive in their categories. Oh yeah, and there's...

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Pro: Well, he did give an iconic, legendary performance. He was coming off of another brilliant performance (and nomination) in 2005. He did die tragically young, setting the stage for one of the most poignant recognintions in Academy history. I could go on and on, really.
Con: Sorry, I've got nothing.

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Pro: A nice underdog story from a hard-working actor. He gave an interesting, lively performance that apparently brought immediate life to the screen when he entred the frame.
Con: Let's just say, if he won, it would be the biggest upset ever.

Winner: Ledger