The Scripts - Oscar Winner Predictions

Best Original Screenplay

A fairly wide-open field with no huge favorite, but a pretty quick process of elimination can widdle this baby down.

Frozen River by Courtney Hunt
Pro: One of the most acclaimed indies of the year and it's very, very indie. And sometimes the Academy likes to believe that the indie-r the film, the better the script.
Con: The relatively surprising noms for the film's script and actress may be all the Academy wants to give this small film.

Happy-Go-Lucky by Mike Leigh
Pro: Leigh is an experienced and beloved writer whom the Academy might be in the mood to reward. His script is smooth throughout, creating a few great characters along the way.
Con: Clearly the Academy doesn't love this film enough to give its Globe-winning actress a nom and really, the buzz on this script has been rather absent.

Milk by Dustin Lance Black
Pro: The driving creative force behind the 8-nom Oscar darling and Best Picture candidate. The script of a heavyweight.
Con: The film has a good deal of documentary footage and there has been a select group of detractors, sighting the script as Milk's major flaw. Scripts with even a few detractors usually don't win.

In Bruges by Martin McDonaugh
Pro: A (mostly) crowd-pleasing, filthy-mouthed affair. The script is the star of what has been a film that is slowly gaining quite a bit of buzz.
Con: Could be a little too cool for the Academy and it's a film that just now has gotten a buzz push. The Academy may think the nomination may be enough of a reward?

Wall-E by Andrew Stanton
Pro: The most accessible "big" award the Academy can give to an animated feature. And this is the most critically acclaimed animated feature ever.
Con: Long stretches of no dialogue could scare some Academy voters (since we all know dialogue is the whole part of a screenplay...) Plus, one word: animation.

Winner: Stanton for WALL-E

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button by Eric Roth
Pro: It's an epic, thick screenplay (never-ending, in fact) that also weaves a story into a historical subtext. The Academy loves Eric Roth. The film is a very, very poor man's Forrest Gump which may trigger fond memories for the Academy.
Con: There are many glaring flaws in this screenplay, one being that you feel nothing from the characters. Also, it's a strong field.

Doubt by John Patrick Shanley
Pro: The screenplay has a big connection with acting and the Academy loves Doubt's acting. Also, its a complex and well-known story from the stage (or is that a bad thing?)
Con: Not much has been made of Doubt's screenplay. It tends to get lost behind the great ensemble of the film. May slip under the noses of the Academy.

Frost/Nixon by Peter Morgan
Pro: It's the underlying factor of why everyone "really thinks Frost/Nixon is a very good movie" and why the play is such a phenomenon and is really the only factor of Forst/Nixon that actually could win, instead of being in by default.
Con: Nobody really cares about Frost/Nixon. It's just there.

The Reader by Peter Hare
Pro: Again, another screenwriting heavyweight that the Academy loves in this category. The script is considered pretty good, just like the film. Pretty good, so it leap-frogs an iconic soon-to-be classic that defined the landscape of cinema in 2009. (You knew I'd bring it up.)
Con: The Reader's script rode the coattails of its bizarre-o Best Picture nom. Just like the film in the Best Picture lineup, Hare's script has no shot in this category that has a clear favorite, being...

Slumdog Millionaire by Simon Beaufoy
Pro: It's an element of the soon-to-be Best Picture winner that everyone likes. The script is clever in its style while giving us great characters in an interesting premise.
Con: Really, none, in my opinion. The Slumdog train is moving too damn fast, at this point.

Winner: Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire