The Ladies - Oscar Winner Predictions

Best Lead Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Pro: A breakout role that is considered the star of a critical darling. I am sure the Academy would love to award a young star who gave a career-defining performance.
Con: The Academy could have a "maybe next time..." approach to awarding Hathaway. She's a young gun and will most likely have another chance at taking the prize in the future. Also, the Academy snubbed RGM in many other categories, so if the Academy doesn't like the film, why would they award its actress?

Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Pro: She gave a respected performance in A Clint Eastwood Film. That always counts for something. Also, Jolie really !ACTED! Tears! Yelling! Looking like a hot mess! Accusations of insanity! They love it all.
Con: Really, no one thinks of Jolie as being better than Winslet or Streep or Leo or even Hathaway in this category. She's really not even close to being a favorite.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Pro: Everyone, yes everyone, loves this understated, subtle performance. Everyone. Her film, just like her performance, has gained momentum (aka Oscar Love) in the past few weeks. If La Streep and Dame Winslet split the vote, Leo may just nab the win.
Con: The film is still small compared to Doubt and Changeling and all of that. I can't see some voters want to award a "no-name" over talk-of-the-town Winslet.

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Pro: She garnered two goddam Golden Globes (I added the 'garner' for alliteration's sake). This woman is clearly "on fire." The performance is considered really good to great and, come on, we've been marking this year down as Kate's Year for awhile now.
Con: Thank Harvey Weinstein if this perfect storm blows over. He pushed and shoved to get The Reader in and with that the performance was thrown into Lead which is probably tougher. The chances of a win were halved when she didn't get the double nods.

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Pro: Everyone is suddenly like, "Wait, Meryl hasn't won an Oscar in, like, three decades. GIVE HER ONE." And the great acceptance speeches and red carpet presence has only boosted the We Love Her level. So everyone is pro-Streep at the moment. Oh, and the performance is killer.
Con: Though I loved her performance, not everyone else did. There were a few detractors. This category is also tough for her facing off with Winslet.

Winner: Winslet

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt
Pro: Adams is one of the most well-liked in Hollywood and among film fans. She followed up a handful of other great work with a very solid turn in Doubt. The Academy may want to elevate Adams to Oscar-winner status.
Con: In a cast of WHOA performances, Adams's was a bit more subtle and quiet, maybe?

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Pro: She's winning a bunch of precursors and unending praise. Is thought of as the best part of Allen's acclaimed film. A very in-your-face, unique performances.
Con: Having been the frontrunner for awhile, voters might want to stir the pot a bit. It doesn't necessarily strike me as an Academy-friendly performance.

Viola Davis, Doubt
Pro: Davis gave the definition of a scene-stealing performance. She sobbed her eyes out, stuck it to bitchy nun Meryl and had snot draining out of her nose (TMI, maybe?)
Con: It is such a great performance, but it's too damn short. Is it at the level of Beatrice Straight's tongue lashing in Network, that even if the performance is only five minutes, it's still worthy of a trophy?

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pro: It's a crucial and well-executed performance in one of Oscar's most beloved movies ever (how, again?) She was almost the only character that even attempted to elecit some feeling from the audience.
Con: It was lightweight, maybe? It seemed like a relatively easy performance and didn't have too much impact. Certainly not my idea of Oscar-worthy.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Pro: Stripper with a heart o' gold routine which is always a treat for the Academy. Plus, Tomei brings complexity and beauty to this gutsy performance ("Brave" as Mickey Rourke says...) Plus, some think this is the best performance of the year, by anyone.
Con: Tomei's biggest con is that she's won before (scandalously). It's an unfair trick by the Academy, but after a third nom, a second win is a no-no.

Winner: Cruz